# Data 140: Probability for Data Science

UC Berkeley, Fall 2023

### Ani AdhikariProfessor

adhikari

### Alexander StrangProfessor

alexstrang

## Week 15

- The Week 15 Study Guide has been released.
- Homework 15 has been released. It is due next Monday at 5PM.
- Exam Prep #7 has been released on Gradescope.

# Calendar

## Week 1: Introduction

- Aug 23
**Guide**Week 1- Aug 24
**Lecture**Probability: axioms, rules, approximation- Course Information, Ch 1, 2

**Homework**Homework 1- Due Aug 28 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 1: Birthday Attack- Due Aug 28 at 5PM

- Aug 25
**Mega-Section**

## Week 2: Random Variables and Symmetry

- Aug 28
**Guide**Week 2**Homework**Homework 2- Due Sep 5 at 12
**noon**

**Lab**Lab 2A: Total Variation- Due Sep 5 at 12
**noon**

- Aug 29
- Aug 30
**Section**- Aug 31
**Lecture**Symmetry and collections of events- Ch 5

- Sep 1
**Mega-Section**

## Week 3: Random Counts

- Sep 5
**Guide**Week 3**Homework**Homework 3- Due Sep 11 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 2B: Total Variation- Due Sep 11 at 5PM

**Lecture**Binomial and related counts; a Poisson limit- Ch 6

- Sep 6
**Section**- Sep 7
**Lecture**Independence and Poissonization- Ch 7

- Sep 8
**Mega-Section**

## Week 4: Expectation

- Sep 11
**Guide**Week 4**Homework**Homework 4- Due Sep 18 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 3A: Chinese Restaurant Process- Due Sep 18 at 5PM

- Sep 12
**Lecture**Expectation- Ch 8.1 - 8.3

- Sep 13
**Section**- Sep 14
**Lecture**Expectation and additivity- Ch 8.4 - 8.5

- Sep 15
**Mega-Section**

## Week 5: Conditioning and Markov Chains

- Sep 18
**Guide**Week 5**Homework**Homework 5- Due Sep 25 at 12
**noon**

**Lab**Lab 3B: Chinese Restaurant Process- Due Sep 25 at 12
**noon**

- Sep 19
**Lecture**Expectation by conditioning- Ch 9

- Sep 20
**Section**- Sep 21
**Lecture**Long run behavior of Markov chains- Ch 10

- Sep 22
**Mega-Section**

## Week 6: Markov Chain Monte Carlo

- Sep 25
**Exam**Midterm 1**7PM - 9PM**

- Sep 26
**Guide**Week 6**Homework**Homework 6- Due Oct 2 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 4: Code Breaking by MCMC- Due Oct 2 at 5PM

- Sep 27
**Section**- Sep 28
**Lecture**Markov Chain Monte Carlo- Ch 11.2 - 11.3

- Sep 29
**Mega-Section**

## Week 7: Variance and Tail Bounds

- Oct 2
**Guide**Week 7**Homework**Homework 7- Due Oct 9 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 5: Multinomial Correlations- Due Oct 9 at 5PM

- Oct 3
**Lecture**Standard deviation and tail bounds- Ch 12

- Oct 4
**Section**- Oct 5
**Lecture**Covariance and its uses- Ch 13

- Oct 6
**Mega-Section**

## Week 8: Central Limit Theorem and Densities

- Oct 9
**Guide**Week 8**Homework**Homework 8- Due Oct 16 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 6A: Densities and SymPy- Due Oct 16 at 5PM

- Oct 10
**Lecture**Central Limit Theorem- Ch 14

- Oct 11
**Section**- Oct 12
**Lecture**Probability densities- Ch 15

- Oct 13
**Mega-Section**

## Week 9: Transformations and Joint Densities

- Oct 16
**Guide**Week 9**Homework**Homework 9- Due Oct 23 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 6B: Densities and SymPy- Due Oct 23 at 5PM

- Oct 17
**Lecture**Transformations- Ch 16

- Oct 18
**Section**- Oct 19
**Lecture**Joint densities- Ch 17

- Oct 20
**Mega-Section**

## Week 10: The Beta, Normal, and Gamma Families

- Oct 23
**Guide**Week 10**Homework**Homework 10- Due Oct 30 at 12
**noon**

- Oct 24
- Oct 25
**Section**- Oct 26
**Lecture**Moment generating functions- Ch 19

- Oct 27
**Mega-Section**

## Week 11: MGFs, MLE, and MAP

- Oct 30
**Exam**Midterm 2**7PM - 9PM**

- Oct 31
**Guide**Week 11**Homework**Homework 11- Due Nov 6 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 7A: Poisson Process- Due Nov 6 at 5PM

**Lecture**Moment generating functions; Chernoff bound- Ch 19

- Nov 1
**Section**- Nov 2
**Lecture**MLE; conditioning; MAP estimates- Ch 20

- Nov 3
**Mega-Section**

## Week 12: The Beta and the Binomial; Prediction

- Nov 6
**Guide**Week 12**Homework**Homework 12- Due Nov 13 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 7B: Poisson Process- Due Nov 13 at 5PM

- Nov 7
**Lecture**The beta and the binomial- Ch 21

- Nov 8
**Section**- Nov 9
**Lecture**Prediction and error- Ch 22.1 - 22.2

- Nov 10
*Veterans Day Holiday*

## Week 13: Variance by Conditioning and Random Vectors

- Nov 13
**Guide**Week 13**Homework**Homework 13- Due Nov 20 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 8: Multivariate Normal- Due Nov 20 at 5PM

- Nov 14
**Lecture**Variance by conditioning- Ch 22.3 - 22.4

- Nov 15
**Section**- Nov 16
**Lecture**Random vectors; the multivariate normal- Ch 23

- Nov 17
**Mega-Section**

## Week 14: Simple Regression

- Nov 20
**Guide**Week 14**Homework**Homework 14- Due Nov 27 at 5PM

- Nov 21
**Lecture**Correlation and simple regression- Ch 24

- Nov 22
*Thanksgiving Break*- Nov 23
*Thanksgiving Break*- Nov 24
*Thanksgiving Break*

## Week 15: Multiple Regression

- Nov 27
**Guide**Week 15**Homework**Homework 15- Due Dec 4 at 5PM

- Nov 28
**Lecture**Multiple regression I- Ch 25.1 - 25.3

- Nov 29
**Section**- Nov 30
**Lecture**Multiple regression II- Ch 25.4

- Dec 1
**Mega-Section**

## Week 16: Reading, Review, Recitation

- Dec 5
*RRR Week*- Dec 6
*RRR Week*- Dec 7
*RRR Week*- Dec 8
*RRR Week*

## Week 17: Final Exams

- Dec 15
**Exam****Final Exam****7PM - 10PM**