Data 140: Probability for Data Science

UC Berkeley, Fall 2023

Ani AdhikariProfessor

adhikari

Alexander StrangProfessor

alexstrang

Week 15

Nov 27

Calendar

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Week 1: Introduction

Aug 23
Guide Week 1
Aug 24
Lecture Probability: axioms, rules, approximation
Course Information, Ch 1, 2
Homework Homework 1
Due Aug 28 at 5PM
Lab Lab 1: Birthday Attack
Due Aug 28 at 5PM
Aug 25
Mega-Section

Week 2: Random Variables and Symmetry

Aug 28
Guide Week 2
Homework Homework 2
Due Sep 5 at 12 noon
Lab Lab 2A: Total Variation
Due Sep 5 at 12 noon
Aug 29
Lecture Random variables: distributions, equality, conditioning
Ch 3, 4
Aug 30
Section
Aug 31
Lecture Symmetry and collections of events
Ch 5
Sep 1
Mega-Section

Week 3: Random Counts

Sep 5
Guide Week 3
Homework Homework 3
Due Sep 11 at 5PM
Lab Lab 2B: Total Variation
Due Sep 11 at 5PM
Lecture Binomial and related counts; a Poisson limit
Ch 6
Sep 6
Section
Sep 7
Lecture Independence and Poissonization
Ch 7
Sep 8
Mega-Section

Week 4: Expectation

Sep 11
Guide Week 4
Homework Homework 4
Due Sep 18 at 5PM
Lab Lab 3A: Chinese Restaurant Process
Due Sep 18 at 5PM
Sep 12
Lecture Expectation
Ch 8.1 - 8.3
Sep 13
Section
Sep 14
Lecture Expectation and additivity
Ch 8.4 - 8.5
Sep 15
Mega-Section

Week 5: Conditioning and Markov Chains

Sep 18
Guide Week 5
Homework Homework 5
Due Sep 25 at 12 noon
Lab Lab 3B: Chinese Restaurant Process
Due Sep 25 at 12 noon
Sep 19
Lecture Expectation by conditioning
Ch 9
Sep 20
Section
Sep 21
Lecture Long run behavior of Markov chains
Ch 10
Sep 22
Mega-Section

Week 6: Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Sep 25
Exam Midterm 1
7PM - 9PM
Sep 26
Guide Week 6
Homework Homework 6
Due Oct 2 at 5PM
Lab Lab 4: Code Breaking by MCMC
Due Oct 2 at 5PM
Lecture Balance
Ch 10, 11.1
Sep 27
Section
Sep 28
Lecture Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Ch 11.2 - 11.3
Sep 29
Mega-Section

Week 7: Variance and Tail Bounds

Oct 2
Guide Week 7
Homework Homework 7
Due Oct 9 at 5PM
Lab Lab 5: Multinomial Correlations
Due Oct 9 at 5PM
Oct 3
Lecture Standard deviation and tail bounds
Ch 12
Oct 4
Section
Oct 5
Lecture Covariance and its uses
Ch 13
Oct 6
Mega-Section

Week 8: Central Limit Theorem and Densities

Oct 9
Guide Week 8
Homework Homework 8
Due Oct 16 at 5PM
Lab Lab 6A: Densities and SymPy
Due Oct 16 at 5PM
Oct 10
Lecture Central Limit Theorem
Ch 14
Oct 11
Section
Oct 12
Lecture Probability densities
Ch 15
Oct 13
Mega-Section

Week 9: Transformations and Joint Densities

Oct 16
Guide Week 9
Homework Homework 9
Due Oct 23 at 5PM
Lab Lab 6B: Densities and SymPy
Due Oct 23 at 5PM
Oct 17
Lecture Transformations
Ch 16
Oct 18
Section
Oct 19
Lecture Joint densities
Ch 17
Oct 20
Mega-Section

Week 10: The Beta, Normal, and Gamma Families

Oct 23
Guide Week 10
Homework Homework 10
Due Oct 30 at 12 noon
Oct 24
Lecture Joint distributions; sums of normal and gamma variables
Ch 17, Ch 18
Oct 25
Section
Oct 26
Lecture Moment generating functions
Ch 19
Oct 27
Mega-Section

Week 11: MGFs, MLE, and MAP

Oct 30
Exam Midterm 2
7PM - 9PM
Oct 31
Guide Week 11
Homework Homework 11
Due Nov 6 at 5PM
Lab Lab 7A: Poisson Process
Due Nov 6 at 5PM
Lecture Moment generating functions; Chernoff bound
Ch 19
Nov 1
Section
Nov 2
Lecture MLE; conditioning; MAP estimates
Ch 20
Nov 3
Mega-Section

Week 12: The Beta and the Binomial; Prediction

Nov 6
Guide Week 12
Homework Homework 12
Due Nov 13 at 5PM
Lab Lab 7B: Poisson Process
Due Nov 13 at 5PM
Nov 7
Lecture The beta and the binomial
Ch 21
Nov 8
Section
Nov 9
Lecture Prediction and error
Ch 22.1 - 22.2
Nov 10
Veterans Day Holiday

Week 13: Variance by Conditioning and Random Vectors

Nov 13
Guide Week 13
Homework Homework 13
Due Nov 20 at 5PM
Lab Lab 8: Multivariate Normal
Due Nov 20 at 5PM
Nov 14
Lecture Variance by conditioning
Ch 22.3 - 22.4
Nov 15
Section
Nov 16
Lecture Random vectors; the multivariate normal
Ch 23
Nov 17
Mega-Section

Week 14: Simple Regression

Nov 20
Guide Week 14
Homework Homework 14
Due Nov 27 at 5PM
Nov 21
Lecture Correlation and simple regression
Ch 24
Nov 22
Thanksgiving Break
Nov 23
Thanksgiving Break
Nov 24
Thanksgiving Break

Week 15: Multiple Regression

Nov 27
Guide Week 15
Homework Homework 15
Due Dec 4 at 5PM
Nov 28
Lecture Multiple regression I
Ch 25.1 - 25.3
Nov 29
Section
Nov 30
Lecture Multiple regression II
Ch 25.4
Dec 1
Mega-Section

Week 16: Reading, Review, Recitation

Dec 5
RRR Week
Dec 6
RRR Week
Dec 7
RRR Week
Dec 8
RRR Week

Week 17: Final Exams

Dec 15
Exam Final Exam
7PM - 10PM