# Data 140: Probability for Data Science

UC Berkeley, Spring 2024

### Ani AdhikariProfessor

adhikari

## Week 14

- The Week 14 Study Guide has been released.
- Homework 14 has been released. It is due on Monday, April 29th at 5PM.

# Calendar

## Week 1: Introduction

- Jan 16
**Lecture**Probability: axioms, rules, approximation- Course Information, Ch 1, 2

**Guide**Week 1**Homework**Homework 1- Due Jan 22 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 1- Due Jan 22 at 5PM

- Jan 17
**Section**- Jan 18
- Jan 19
**Mega-Section**

## Week 2: Symmetry and Random Counts

- Jan 22
**Guide**Week 2**Homework**Homework 2- Due Jan 29 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 2- Due Jan 29 at 5PM

- Jan 23
**Lecture**Symmetry and collections of events- Ch 5

- Jan 24
**Section**- Jan 25
**Lecture**Binomial and related counts; a Poisson limit- Ch 6

- Jan 26
**Mega-Section**

## Week 3: Poissonization and Expectation

- Jan 29
**Guide**Week 3**Homework**Homework 3- Due Feb 5 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 3A- Due Feb 5 at 5PM

- Jan 30
**Lecture**Independence and Poissonization- Ch 7

- Jan 31
**Section**- Feb 1
**Lecture**Expectation- Ch 8.1 - 8.3

- Feb 2
**Mega-Section**

## Week 4: Expectation and Conditioning

- Feb 5
**Guide**Week 4**Homework**Homework 4- Due Feb 12 at 12
**noon**

**Lab**Lab 3B- Due Feb 12 at 12
**noon**

- Feb 6
**Lecture**Expectation and additivity- Ch 8.4 - 8.5

- Feb 7
**Section**- Feb 8
**Lecture**Expectation by conditioning- Ch 9

- Feb 9
**Mega-Section**

## Week 5: Markov Chains

- Feb 12
**Exam**Midterm 1**7PM - 9PM**

- Feb 13
**Guide**Week 5**Homework**Homework 5- Due Feb 20 at 12
**noon**

**Lecture**Long run behavior of Markov chains- Ch 10

- Feb 14
**Section**- Feb 15
- Feb 16
**Mega-Section**

## Week 6: MCMC and Variance

- Feb 20
**Guide**Week 6**Homework**Homework 6- Due Feb 26 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 4- Due Feb 26 at 5PM

**Lecture**Markov Chain Monte Carlo- Ch 11.2 - 11.3

- Feb 21
**Section**- Feb 22
**Lecture**Standard deviation and tail bounds- Ch 12

- Feb 23
**Mega-Section**

## Week 7: Covariance and CLT

- Feb 26
**Guide**Week 7**Homework**Homework 7- Due Mar 4 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 5- Due Mar 4 at 5PM

- Feb 27
**Lecture**Covariance and its uses- Ch 13

- Feb 28
**Section**- Feb 29
**Lecture**Central Limit Theorem- Ch 14

- Mar 1
**Mega-Section**

## Week 8: Densities and Transformations

- Mar 4
**Guide**Week 8**Homework**Homework 8- Due Mar 11 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 6A- Due Mar 11 at 5PM

- Mar 5
**Lecture**Probability densities- Ch 15

- Mar 6
**Section**- Mar 7
**Lecture**Transformations- Ch 16

- Mar 8
**Mega-Section**

## Week 9: Joint Densities, Beta, Normal, and Gamma Families

## Week 10: MGFs

- Mar 18
**Exam**Midterm 2**7PM - 9PM**

- Mar 19
**Guide**Week 10**Homework**Homework 10- Due Apr 1 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 7A- Due Apr 1 at 5PM

**Lecture**Moment generating functions- Ch 19

- Mar 20
**Section**- Mar 21
**Lecture**Moment generating functions; Chernoff bound- Ch 19

## Spring Break

- Mar 25
*Spring Break*- Mar 26
*Spring Break*- Mar 27
*Spring Break*- Mar 28
*Spring Break*- Mar 29
*Spring Break*

## Week 11: MLE, MAP, the Beta and the Binomial

- Apr 1
**Guide**Week 11**Homework**Homework 11- Due Apr 8 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 7B- Due Apr 8 at 5PM

- Apr 2
**Lecture**MLE; conditioning; MAP estimates- Ch 20

- Apr 3
**Section**- Apr 4
**Lecture**The beta and the binomial- Ch 21

- Apr 5
**Mega-Section**

## Week 12: Prediction and Error

- Apr 8
**Guide**Week 12**Homework**Homework 12- Due Apr 15 at 5PM

- Apr 9
**Lecture**Prediction and error- Ch 22.1 - 22.2

- Apr 10
**Section**- Apr 11
**Lecture**Variance by conditioning- Ch 22.3 - 22.4

- Apr 12
**Mega-Section**

## Week 13: Random Vectors and Simple Regression

- Apr 15
**Guide**Week 13**Homework**Homework 13- Due Apr 22 at 5PM

**Lab**Lab 8- Due Apr 22 at 5PM

- Apr 16
**Lecture**Random vectors; the multivariate normal- Ch 23

- Apr 17
**Section**- Apr 18
**Lecture**Correlation and simple regression- Ch 24

- Apr 19
**Mega-Section**

## Week 14: Multiple Regression

- Apr 22
**Guide**Week 14**Homework**Homework 14- Due Apr 29 at 5PM

- Apr 23
**Lecture**Multiple regression I- Ch 25.1 - 25.3

- Apr 24
**Section**- Apr 25
**Lecture**Multiple regression II- Ch 25.4

- Apr 26
**Mega-Section**

## Week 15: Reading, Review, Recitation

- Apr 29
*RRR Week*- Apr 30
*RRR Week*- May 1
*RRR Week*- May 2
*RRR Week*- May 3
*RRR Week*

## Week 16: Final Exams

- May 6
**Exam****Final Exam****11:30AM - 2:30PM**